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Rising Sales in Most States, and Rising Prices in Many Metros (at Last!)

by NAR Research Staff

There was good news for most states in the 4th quarter of 2009. Existing-home sales rose from the 3rd to 4th quarter in 48 states and the District of Columbia. In fact, 32 states experienced double-digit quarterly gains. On a year-over-year basis, resales were higher in 49 states and the District, with all but three posting double-digit annual increases.

According to the latest quarterly statistics released by NAR Research, total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 13.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.03 million in the fourth quarter - up from 5.29 million in the third quarter. Existing-home sales rose 27.2 percent from their 4th quarter 2008 pace of 4.74 million units. As a further sign of housing market stability, distressed properties accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions; that is down from
37 percent a year earlier.

Metropolitan Area Home Prices

There was some good news on the home price front as well. In the fourth quarter, 67 out of 151 metropolitan statistical areas boasted higher median existing single-family home prices compared with prices registered in the fourth quarter of 2008. In the third quarter only 30 MSAs showed annual price increases. Sixteen metros experienced double-digit increases. On a national basis, the news was not quite as good. The national median existing single-family home price was $172,900, 4.1 percent below the price registered in the fourth quarter of 2008. But on the positive front, that was the smallest price decline in over two years. It should be noted that the most recent monthly price data showed a broad stabilization in home prices.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices - covering changes in 54 metro areas - showed the national median existing-condo price was $177,300 in the fourth quarter, down 4.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. Eleven metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year earlier. In the third quarter only four metros experienced annual price gains.

Regional Differences

All four regions of the country saw rising home sales. Existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.1 percent from the 3rd quarter to 1.03 million units; Northeast resales were 33.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 5.6 percent to $234,900 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter in 2008, but with widely varying conditions. Markets with lower median prices that have avoided wide swings, such as Buffalo, are generally showing consistent price gains. And even some of the higher cost areas such as Nassau-Suffolk (NY) and Boston (MA) are exhibiting signs of stabilization.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 14.5 percent (on a quarter to quarter basis) to a pace of 1.38 million units and were 29.9 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the region rose 1.1 percent from a year ago to $141,100. In fact, the Midwest accounted for the majority of metro areas experiencing double-digit price gains.

Existing-home sales in the South increased 13.8 percent from the 3rd to the 4th quarter of 2009 to an annual rate of 2.23 million units; resales in the region were 28.2 percent higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $153,000 in the fourth quarter, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

The West experienced a 16.2 percent increase in existing-home sales, posting an annual rate of 1.38 million units. On a year-over-year basis, resales in the region were up 18.2 percent. The median existing single-family home price in the West did decline 8.9 percent from a year ago (to $227,200), but many metros showed price gains.

Behind the Numbers

What's driving the rising home sales and stabilizing prices? The dominant factor is the home buyer tax credit. Buyers are responding to the program, and that - combined with record low mortgage interest rates - are attracting purchasers to the market.

One cautionary issue down the road will face buyers. They will need to accelerate their buying plans if they want to qualify for the tax credit. While repeat buyers do not have to sell their existing home, all buyers must occupy the property they purchase as a primary residence in order to qualify for the tax credit. Buyers who have a contract in place by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to get a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

Near-term market conditions will remain favorable. While interest rates are expected to trend up later this year, affordability continues at healthy levels. In general, housing market conditions are good - home prices are steadying and inventory, while drawing down, continues to be plentiful offering potential buyers a variety of options.

For the latest statistics on existing-home sales by state and median home prices by metropolitan area, visit
www.realtor.org/research.

1. Improve first impressions. Touch up the paint on the front door and other areas that buyers see first.
2. Clean up the landscaping. Trim the hedges and trees and plant some annuals in the flowerbeds.
3. Paint the interior. A coat of light yellow or cream with contrasting white woodwork looks fresh and clean.
4. Refurbish the floors. Buff the hardwoods. Install new carpets – or at least get them professionally cleaned.
5. Take care of the big problems. If the house needs a roof or the front stoop is crumbling, get them fixed.
6. Buy warranties. Putting appliances under warranty gives homebuyers a secure feeling.
7. Improve energy efficiency. New windows or improved insulation tell a potential buyer the seller is on top of things plus they come with tax benefits.
8. Replace light fixtures. Updated fixtures, especially at the entrance way and in the foyer, create a good first impression.
9. Buy a stove. Home owners whose kitchen isn’t top of the line can jazz it up for a few hundred dollars by buying a new stove, which gives the room a fresh feel.
10. Tidy up the bathrooms. Get rid of mildew, replace caulking and replace stained sinks.

Don't wait!!!  Now is THE time to buy.  Rates remain at historic lows with some experts predicting an increase in the near future.  Higher rates could lower your buying "power" by the thousands!  We still have plenty of inventory at outstanding prices as well.  Please read the following article from the National Association of Realtors:

Interest Rates Predicted to Reach 6%

Interest rates are likely to rise to 6 percent by the end of 2010, predicted Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac.

The end of the Federal Reserve program that buys mortgage-backed securities will drive rates higher because private buyers will demand more return than the Fed.

"Extraordinary resources have been put into keeping the rates down and supporting the mortgage markets and it's hard to imagine that the rates can go much lower than they are," Crews Cutts said. "Anything we get at or below 5 percent is a gift at this point."

Source: Washington Post, Dina ElBoghdady (12/26/2009)

Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales rose again in November as first-time buyers rushed to close sales before the original Nov. 30 deadline for the recently extended and expanded tax credit, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the rise was expected. “This clearly is a rush of first-time buyers not wanting to miss out on the tax credit, but there are many more potential buyers who can enter the market in the months ahead,” he said. “We expect a temporary sales drop while buying activity ramps up for another surge in the spring when buyers take advantage of the expanded tax credit, which hopefully will take us into a self-sustaining market in the second half of 2010. In all, 4.4 million households are expected to claim the tax credit before it expires and balance should be restored to the housing sector with inventories continuing to decline.”

Conditions Optimal for Buyers
An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 51 percent of homes in November, compared with an upwardly revised 50 percent of transactions in October. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 4.88 percent in November from 4.95 percent in October; the rate was 6.09 percent in November 2008. Last month’s mortgage interest rate was the second lowest on record after bottoming at 4.81 percent in April 2009.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said conditions are optimal for buyers in the current market. “Inventories have steadily declined and are closer to balanced levels, which indicate home prices in many areas are either stabilizing or could soon stabilize and return to normal appreciation patterns,” she said. “This means buyers still have good choices but are purchasing near the bottom of the price cycle with historically low mortgage interest rates. Throw a tax credit on top and it really doesn’t get any better for buyers with secure jobs and long-term ownership plans.”

Inventories Fall
Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October. Raw unsold inventory figures are 15.5 percent below a year ago. The last time there was a lower supply of homes on the market was April 2006, when it was at a 6.1-month supply.

“Nearly all markets experienced a solid sales gain from one year ago,” Yun said. “The only markets with measurably lower sales were in San Diego, Riverside, and Sacramento (Calif.), where inventory shortages for lower-priced homes are limiting sales.”

Sales Rise Across the Board
For the second month in a row, sales have risen in all price classes from a year earlier. Prior to October, the only consistent gains were in the lower price ranges. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $172,600 in November, which is 4.3 percent below November 2008. Distressed properties, which accounted for 33 percent of sales in November, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-Family Homes
Single-family home sales jumped 8.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million in November from a level of 5.32 million in October, and are 42.1 percent above the pace of 4.06 million in November 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $171,900 in November, down 4.4 percent from a year ago.

Condos
Existing condominium and co-op sales in November were unchanged from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 in October, but are 60.1 percent above the 481,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $178,000 in November, which is 3.1 percent below November 2008.

By Region

• Sales in the Northeast rose 6.6 percent to an annual level of 1.13 million in November, and are 52.7 percent higher than November 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $223,400, down 13.1 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest increased 8.4 percent in November to a pace of 1.55 million and are 53.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $140,800, a decline of 0.4 percent from November 2008.
• In the South, existing-home sales rose 4.8 percent to an annual level of 2.39 million in November and are 44.8 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the South was $151,400, down 1.4 percent from November 2008.
• Existing-home sales in the West increased 10.6 percent to an annual rate of 1.46 million in November and are 28.1 percent above November 2008. The median price in the West was $231,100, which is 4.1 percent below a year ago.

Exterior Remodeling: Best Bang for Your Buck

Despite a slow market and a slight decrease in the resale value of most remodeling projects, REALTORS® report that the smartest home improvement investments may also be some of the least expensive. Results from the 2009 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report show that small-scale exterior projects are the most profitable at resale, according to estimates by REALTORS® who completed a recent survey.

On a national level, eight out of the top 10 projects in terms of costs recouped were exterior replacement projects that cost less than $14,000. Certain types of door and siding replacements, as well as wood deck additions all returned more than 80 percent of project costs upon resale. A steel entry door replacement – a new addition to this year’s list – recouped 128.9 percent of costs, followed by upscale fiber-cement sliding replacements at 83.6 percent. Wood deck additions recouped 80.6 percent of costs.

“Once again, this year’s Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report highlights the importance of a home’s first impression,” said NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. “With exterior projects returning a high percent of project costs upon resale, Realtors® can help give your home curb appeal while adding value to the real estate transaction.

The 2009 Remodeling Cost vs. Value Report compares construction costs with resale values for 33 midrange and upscale remodeling projects comprising additions, remodels and replacements in 80 markets across the country. Data are grouped in nine U.S. regions, following the divisions established by the U.S. Census Bureau. This is the twelfth consecutive year that the report, which is produced by Hanley Wood, LLC, was completed in cooperation with REALTOR® Magazine, as REALTORS® provided their insight into local markets and buyer home preferences within those markets.

On a national level, the project with the biggest improvement from 2008 was the attic bedroom addition, recouping 83.1 percent of remodeling costs compared to 73.8 percent in 2008. The only other interior project that landed in the top 10 was a minor kitchen remodel with 78.3 percent costs recouped.
Other exterior projects in the top 10 include midrange vinyl and upscale foam-backed vinyl sliding replacements, which returned more than 79 percent of costs. In addition, several types of window replacements – midrange wood, midrange vinyl, and upscale vinyl – all returned more than 76 percent of costs upon sale.

Similar to last year’s report, the least profitable remodeling projects in terms of resale value were home office remodels and sunroom additions, returning only 48.1 percent and 50.7 percent of project costs.

Regionally, cities in the Pacific states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington once again outperformed the rest of the nation in terms of remodeling costs recouped upon resale. The West South Central region of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas; the East South Central region of Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee; and the South Atlantic region of the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia also performed relatively well.

The regions that generally returned the lowest percentage of costs were New England (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Vermont), East North Central (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin), West North Central (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota), and the Middle Atlantic (New York and Pennsylvania).

Golder commented that remodeling projects are just one of many factors that contribute to a home’s overall resale value. “As the first, best source for real estate information, REALTORS® are experts in providing insight into what projects and investments will make a difference in your house. It’s important to consult with a REALTOR® who can explain the variety of factors that affect a home’s value, such as location, condition of surrounding properties and the regional economic climate,” she said.

Results of the report are summarized in the January issue of REALTOR® Magazine. To read the full project descriptions, access national and regional project data, and download a free PDF containing data for any of the 80 cities covered by the report, visit www.costvsvalue.com. “Cost vs. Value” is a registered trademark of Hanley Wood, LLC.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Tax Credit Quandaries Answered

The complexity of new home buyer tax credits leaves potential buyers with many questions. Here are answers to some of the most confusing:

How does a current home owner qualify for the $6,500 credit?
Buyers must have lived in their homes for at least five out of the last eight years. The home they buy must become their primary residence, but buyers don’t have to sell their previous home. They can use the previous home as a rental or a second home and still claim the credit.

Does the new home have to be more expensive than the one the buyer currently owns?
No. It is fine to use it to downsize. If the property sells for more than $800,000, the buyers don’t qualify.

Can buyers who are building a new home claim the credit?
Yes, although the contract must be in place by April 30 and the buyer must move in by July 1.

Can buyers claim the credit if they purchase a home from a relative?
No. The legislation prohibits taxpayers from claiming the credit if the sale is between “related parties,” including parent, grandparent, child, or grandchild.

Source: USA Today, Sandra Block (11/24/2009)

The Basics: Extended Home Buyer Tax Credit 2009/2010

Big Rebound in Existing-Home Sales

Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops—jumped 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2 percent higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in more than two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. “Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home,” he said. “We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery.”

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. “Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home-owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet,” he said.

Conditions for First-Time Buyers
Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released on Nov. 13, the 2009 National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers,shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45 percent of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29 percent of transactions in September.

NAR President Charles McMillan said affordability conditions remain historically high. “Potential first-time buyers can take heart in that affordability conditions this year are the highest on record dating back to 1970, but with the first-time buyer tax credit scheduled to expire at the end of next month, people could hold back from entering the market,” he said. “Our read is that housing overshot on the downside because homes are selling for less than replacement construction costs in much of the country, and the home price-to-income ratio has fallen below the historical average.”

Inventory Falls
Total housing inventory at the end of September fell 7.5 percent to 3.63 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 7.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 9.3-month supply in August. Unsold inventory totals are 15.0 percent below a year ago.

“The current housing supply is the lowest we’ve seen in two and a half years,” Yun said. “If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06 percent in September from 5.19 percent in August; the rate was 6.04 percent in September 2008.

Home Sales Breakdown
The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5 percent lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales rose 9.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7 percent above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7 percent above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7 percent from September 2008.

Here’s the region-by-region picture:

• Northeast: Existing-home sales increased 4.4 percent to an annual level of 950,000 in September, and are 11.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price was $234,700, down 7.0 percent from a year ago.
• Midwest: Existing-home sales jumped 9.6 percent in September to a pace of 1.25 million and are 7.8 percent above a year ago. The median price was $147,600, which is 1.0 percent below September 2008.
• South: Existing-home sales rose 9.0 percent to an annual level of 2.06 million in September and are 10.8 percent higher than September 2008. The median price was $153,500, down 7.6 percent from a year ago.
• West: Existing-home sales surged 13.0 percent to an annual rate of 1.30 million in September and are 5.7 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $219,000, which is 15.0 percent below September 2008.